Mexico's peso weakened on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, trading near 18.59 per dollar, according to Milenio, as investors weighed the outcome of US midterm elections and lingering geopolitical risk. The move followed two sessions of gains for the currency, including Monday's 1.1 percent advance — its strongest single day since April, the outlet reported.
Milenio put the peso's loss at 0.15 percent against LSEG's Monday reference price. In a separate report cited by the outlet, Banco Base said the currency had opened the session firmer, up 0.12 percent or 1.9 centavos at roughly 18.55 per dollar, after trading between 18.52 and 18.61.
Why it matters
The peso is one of the most heavily traded emerging-market currencies, and its daily swings feed directly into the cost of imports, dollar-denominated debt and cross-border business for Mexican firms. A session shaped by US politics and Middle East risk is a reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift: Monday's rally and Tuesday's pullback came within 24 hours of each other, per Milenio's account.
What moved the markets
At the center of the session was the US midterm vote, which will determine control of Congress. Milenio reported that polls and independent analysts suggested Democrats could retake the House of Representatives, while the Senate remained too close to call.
Investors were also monitoring friction between Washington and Tehran, the outlet reported. Crude prices swung on conflicting signals about negotiations to end the war in Iran, according to Milenio.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, edged up 0.1 percent to 101.86, Milenio reported. Among other majors, the euro was quoted at $1.1184, sterling at $1.3417 and the yen at 158.46 per dollar, according to the same account.
Banco Base, as cited by Milenio, linked the peso's early strength to an announcement by US President Donald Trump that Washington would halt financial assistance to Israel from the end of 2026, on the argument that Israel's economy can fund its own needs. Trump said in an interview that the US sends about $4 billion a year to Israel and that the decision had been agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Labor and factory data
US economic releases also drew attention. Milenio reported that job openings rose sharply in September while layoffs fell, supporting economists' view that the labor market held up despite weak hiring that month.
The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed openings, a gauge of labor demand, climbing by 333,000 to 7.523 million at the end of September, according to Milenio. August figures were revised slightly higher to 7.19 million from the 7.079 million first reported.
New orders for US manufactured goods also rose more than expected in September, helped by aircraft and other categories, Milenio reported, citing the Commerce Department's Census Bureau. Orders increased 1.8 percent after an upwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in August; economists polled by Reuters had expected 1.2 percent following a previously reported 0.1 percent rise for August.
Where the peso could go next
Laura Torres, director of investment at IMB Capital Quants, told Milenio she expects the exchange rate to trade in a technical consolidation range of 18.48 to 18.68 pesos per dollar during the session. If uncertainty over the US vote count deepens and prompts defensive dollar buying by local and institutional traders, she said, the rate could rebound toward immediate resistance between 18.65 and 18.74.
Milenio also noted that exchange rates differ by bank and currency exchange house, and advised anyone buying dollars to use regulated institutions and check commissions.
What to watch: the vote count in the US midterms and any further headlines on Iran, both of which Milenio identified as the main forces steering the peso this week.
